I was surprised (not shocked) at the Trump bounce in today’s CNN Presidential poll . I was much more SHOCKED at the CNN flash poll after the Trump’ speech on Thursday, that showed overwhelming support for what Trump said.
First of all, here’s the link to the poll; CNN Poll
Here are the incongruities that I find in the poll:
1. Peculiar that Trump got a big CNN bump when the overall poll respondents had a slightly negative view of the RNC convention.
2. Demographically, the “Non - White” number seems significantly understated. From other polls, Hillary is doing significantly better with both African-Americans and Hispanics. Also I don’t know why the youth group is “N/A”, which might indicate under sampling of the youth.
3. Regional breakdown also seems off. I don’t know what constitutes the Midwest, but if Clinton is down 12 point then that means that Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota are in serious jeopardy. But most polls have Hillary ahead or even in those states and not DOWN 12.
Same for the West, hard to believe that Trump is +2 with California, Oregon and Washington firmly in the Hillary column.
So this “poll” seems to confirm my feeling about some pollsters, they do it to generate news and talking points for their commentators who talk ALL DAY LONG. They are only graded by their final poll, so they can play all kinds of games until November.
The only information that can be gleaned from this poll would be that poll respondents, who were slightly more pro Trump than the electorate, didn’t like the GOP convention.