Who’s leading in the fight for Democratic Delegates? Hillary Clinton is, by a margin of 9 to 1, if you trust the NY Times www.nytimes.com/...
How is that possible? Well, the Times is counting all of the Superdelegates who committed early to Hillary. Sound familiar? It should. Hillary had a similar lead eight years ago over neophyte Barack Obama and I’m sure you remember how that turned out.
WHO ARE SUPERDELEGATES AND WHAT ARE THEIR SUPER POWERS?
Superdelegates are party elites who get to have a vote at the convention because… well because they’re party elites. The system was instituted before the 1984 race to assure that a candidate approved by the powers that be — somebody they considered electable — got the nomination. In ‘84, it helped deliver the nomination to Walter Mondale who went on to not win the Presidency.
So the super power they are supposed to possess is to assure the nomination to a candidate who is acceptable to party leaders. However, the only power we can be assured of is the ability to alienate real voters.
Superdelegates make up about 15% of the total delegate count on the Democratic side. So, in a tight race, they can make a difference. They can make an even bigger difference early on, when an upstart candidate like Bernie Sanders has a small lead in un-superdelegates compared to Hillary’s massive lead in Supers. A voter could look at that lead, decide that Bernie’s got no chance and settle for Hillary.
But that doesn’t happen. If anything, the opposite happens. Articles start popping up saying that Hillary has a massive lead and it only confirms Bernie’s narrative that the system is rigged.
THE E-VITE OF ELECTORAL POLITICS
And the fact is, she has no lead. Superdelegates aren’t counted till the convention. Unlike committed delegates won at primaries, they are unbeholden. They’re like RSVPs, telling you somebody plans on attending your event, but not guaranteeing that the person won’t decide at the last minute go to the other much more fun party, you know, the one being thrown by those cool kids, Barack and Bernie.
It happened in ‘08. First in droplets, then in droves, as the Supers abandoned Hillary and joined Obama. None of these switches was more telling that John Lewis, the revered Civil Rights champion who committed to the Clintons and then — when his own re-election was being challenged — changed his allegiance. Nobody noticed when he came out for Hillary. Everybody noticed when he jumped ship.
So what has Hillary done in ‘16? Not only has she sewn up Lewis’ commitment once again, she got the whole Congressional Black Caucus to back her, as a group. Nothing says establishment candidate more than getting a block of congressmen to back you as a group. Even if they are minority congressmen.
IT GETS WORSE
And that’s just the tip of her Superdelegate iceberg. At the very moment she needs to be taking her fight to the people and showing she can beat Bernie fair and square, Hillary is actually being hurt by reports popping up informing people that in spite of Bernie’s “yuge” victory in New Hampshire, Hillary is somehow in the lead by a wide margin.
But let’s fast forward and say Hillary does win the nomination and lets say the Superdelegates have are the determining factor or even just appear to be so. It might mean that Bernie’s support is less than enthusiastic and that some of his grass roots support doesn’t follow Hillary to the general.
It would also be a boon for her opponent, especially if that opponent is Trump. He can say that he is the people’s choice while Hillary is the puppet of the establishment. Adding that argument to his claim that he was on the right side of the Iraq decision and that he is not beholden to any money interests could actually win him some Bernie backers.
Hillary’s reliance on Superdelegates or the appearance of such could not only hurt her chances to win the nomination, it could also hurt her after she wins it.
If this is her strategy, it’s backfiring. If it’s unintentional, she has to intentionally stop it.
WHAT HILLARY NEEDS TO DO
Imagine if Hillary made a big public announcement that she is officially releasing all her Superdelegates. She is not holding them to any obligation and she doesn’t want the NY Times or any other news outlet to count them. She’s only interested in the nomination if she can win it in a fair fight with Bernie.
She needs to do something bold and unexpected. This would be it.
It isn’t binding in any way, but neither are the pledges of Superdelegates, which they can rescind at any time. She should never claim these votes and her campaign should denounce any media outlet that counts these as being equivalent to actual committed delegate counts. She needs to stop the narrative that she has secured the nomination through this elitist route.
The fact is, Hillary is better as an underdog than as a favorite. Inevitability is not her friend. It wasn’t eight years ago and it isn’t now. She was supposed to win bigger in Iowa. The result was disappointing. She didn’t expect to win in New Hampshire, but she also wasn’t supposed to lose by 20+%. It made her supporters nervous.
It looks like she’s heading to another close victory tomorrow in Nevada in a contest where she had a clear lead not long ago. And in South Carolina, she’ll need more than a victory to slow the Bernie train. She’ll need a margin comparable to his win in New Hampshire.
It’s time for Hillary to send out a signal that she recognizes the game has changed and she’s ready to win it.